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Prediction for CME (2024-02-21T18:36:00-CME-001)

CME Observed Time: 2024-02-21T18:36Z
iSWAS Layout URL: https://kauai.ccmc.gsfc.nasa.gov/DONKI/view/CME/29338/-1
CME Note: Wide partial halo CME to the west, associated with a beautiful filament eruption seen after 2024-02-21T17:30Z in AIA 304 traversing the western part of the disk and later as prominence off the western limb in SUVI 304. There is also an area of deep dimming and post eruptive arcades centered at (~N05W40) and stretching along 40th longitude (from lat -3 to 20) in AIA 193 associated with this eruption.
CME Shock Arrival Time: 2024-02-24T16:16Z
Observed Geomagnetic Storm Parameters due to CME:
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Predicted Arrival Time: 2024-02-24T16:44Z (-7.0h, +7.0h)
Predicted geomagnetic storm max Kp range due to CME: 3.0 - 5.0
Prediction Method: WSA-ENLIL + Cone (NASA M2M)
Prediction Method Note:

Flank impact or glancing blow.

https://kauai.ccmc.gsfc.nasa.gov/DONKI/view/WSA-ENLIL/29340/1
Model Inputs:
2024-02-21T18:36:00-CME-001 with CME Analysis: Lon.=40.0, Lat.=-2.0, Speed=576.0, HalfAngle=45.0, Time21.5=2024-02-22T01:00Z

Model Output:

Earth Impact:
Earth Shock Arrival Time = 2024-02-24T16:44Z (+- 7 hours)
Duration of disturbance (hr) =15.7 (+- 8 hours)
Minimum magnetopause standoff distance: Rmin(Re) = 6.3
(kp)90=3
(kp)180=5

Other Location(s) Impact:
STEREO A with esitmated shock arrival time 2024-02-24T14:26Z

Inner Planets Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20240222_010000_2.0_anim.tim-den.gif
Inner Planets Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20240222_010000_2.0_anim.tim-vel.gif
Inner Planets Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20240222_010000_2.0_anim.tim-den-Stereo_A.gif
Inner Planets Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20240222_010000_2.0_anim.tim-vel-Stereo_A.gif
Timelines Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20240222_010000_2.0_ENLIL_CONE_timeline.gif
Timelines Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20240222_010000_2.0_ENLIL_CONE_Kp_timeline.gif
Timelines Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20240222_010000_2.0_ENLIL_CONE_PSP_timeline.gif
Timelines Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20240222_010000_2.0_ENLIL_CONE_STA_timeline.gif
Timelines Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20240222_010000_2.0_ENLIL_CONE_Mars_timeline.gif
Timelines Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20240222_010000_2.0_ENLIL_CONE_Merc_timeline.gif
Timelines Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20240222_010000_2.0_ENLIL_CONE_SolO_timeline.gif
Timelines Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20240222_010000_2.0_ENLIL_CONE_Venus_timeline.gif
Timelines Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20240222_010000_2.0_ENLIL_CONE_Osiris_timeline.gif
Timelines Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20240222_010000_2.0_ENLIL_CONE_Psyche_timeline.gif

Lead Time: 50.50 hour(s)
Difference: -0.47 hour(s)
Prediction submitted by Anna Chulaki (M2M Office) on 2024-02-22T13:46Z

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